From Platinum Advisors & CSSA Legislative committee

June 9, 2026

IN THE NEWS

The June Primary Election took place a week ago today, marking the end of the most expensive gubernatorial primary in U.S. history. It is estimated that total ad spending amounted to a staggering $315.8 million, most of which (64%) can be attributed to Tom Steyer. Whether Steyer's investment will pay off remains to be seen. 

The race has still yet to be called with roughly half of California's ballots still uncounted. Experts predict the remaining ballots will break in Democrats’ favor — a trend that would likely lead to the former health secretary Xavier Becerra coming out on top after the final tally. Currently, Becerra trails Republican Steve Hilton by about 63,000 votes, while Steyer trails Becerra by about 330,583 votes. In order for Steyer to break into the top two, Hilton’s statewide take would need to dip down into the low 20% range, while Steyer would need to climb into the low-to-mid 20% range to catch up.

For Big Tech, the gubernatorial primary was a disappointing defeat. Despite pouring about $30 million into San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s campaign, Mahan was one of the first candidates for governor to concede defeat on Tuesday night and was in sixth place in returns.

Please see below for relevant news clips.

Wealth-tax backlash, data nerds and Newsom’s regret

• The anti-wealth-tax dam is breaking. First, on Wednesday, it was the powerful State Building and Construction Trades Council of California coming out against SEIU-UHW’s proposed tax on billionaires. Today, more heavy hitters joined as the California Medical Association, Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, and the California Primary Care Association formally opposed the measure.
• In announcing their opposition, the health care trio questioned the measure’s central premise, which is that the levy is necessary to offset deep federal Medi-Cal cuts that could devastate California's health care system. They called the wealth tax a flawed response — a one-time windfall that wouldn’t necessarily go where it’s needed and, according to the Legislative Analyst's Office, could cost California more than it brings in.
• These aren’t random interest groups. The CMA and Planned Parenthood especially have historically been closely aligned with California’s Democratic power structure and with Newsom himself (although the governor’s relationship with the CMA has hit a rough patch). The CPCA, meanwhile, has been locked in a standoff with SEIU-UHW over the union’s ballot measure to regulate clinics.

Why tech found rare success in California’s down-ballot races

• Silicon Valley’s money machine hit plenty of dead ends on the California ballot. But a pair of newcomer tech-backed super PACs — both on track to rack up wins in Sacramento — are emerging as exceptions.
• Bankrolled by artificial intelligence companies and deep-pocketed billionaires, the super PACs dropped millions of dollars in state legislative races, propelling more moderate candidates into contention. Their success has been a bright spot in a primary cycle otherwise littered with embarrassing defeats for tech-funded candidates, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and Rep. Ro Khanna challenger Ethan Agarwal.

Early primary voting for Democrats sluggish, Republicans up slightly over 2022

• Some 16% of registered voters have cast early ballots as of Monday, the day before California will elect a successor to outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom. About 3.6 million voters out of 23.1 million statewide have returned their ballots, according to Political Data, an election firm run by election data scientist Paul Mitchell.
• The majority of ballot returnees in deep blue California skew white elderly, and Democratic, though they have not been quite as enthusiastic as compared to the previous 2022 primary cycle. Only about 16% of Democrats have returned a ballot so far, compared to 20% at this time in the 2022 primary. Conversely, Republican turnout has ticked up slightly, from 20% in 2022 to 21% this year.

Statewide Elections Recap

Courtesy of CA Business Properties Association

Governor

The race for Governor is shaping up to be one of the most competitive statewide contests in recent memory. Republican Steve Hilton currently leads the field, followed by former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. Billionaire Tom Steyer remains within striking distance as counties continue processing ballots.

Lieutenant Governor

State Treasurer Fiona Ma is currently positioned to advance to the November General Election with 19.2% of the vote. Former State Senator Gloria Romero leads the field, while Veterans Affairs Secretary Josh Fryday and former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs remain within striking distance as ballots continue to be counted.

Insurance Commissioner

Former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim currently leads the race for Insurance Commissioner with 24.3% of the vote, followed by State Senator Ben Allen with 19.4%. Republican Stacy Korsgaden is currently in third place with 17.2%.

Key Congressional Races

Congressional District 6 – Kevin Kiley Seat

Congressman Kevin Kiley remains on track to advance to the November General Election. The battle for second place remains extremely close, with Richard Pan and Michael Stansfield separated by a narrow margin. With thousands of ballots still left to count, the second runoff position remains too close to call.

Congressional District 11 – Nancy Pelosi Seat

The race for the open congressional seat long represented by Nancy Pelosi and now sought by former State Senator Scott Wiener is expected to be one of the most expensive and closely watched congressional contests in California. Multiple candidates remain in contention as vote counting continues, with labor, business, housing, and progressive groups heavily engaged in the race.

Congressional District 4 – Mike Thompson Seat

Congressman Mike Thompson finished first in the primary and is expected to advance to the November General Election. Napa County Supervisor Eric Jones also appears positioned to move forward, setting up a competitive November contest.

Key Legislative Races

Senate District 40 – Brian Jones Seat

The race to replace termed-out Senator Brian Jones remains one of the most closely watched legislative contests in California. Former Olivenhain Water District Board Member Kristie Bruce-Lane, former San Diego City Attorney Mara Elliott, and San Marcos City Councilmember Edward Musgrove are competing for the open Senate seat.

Assembly District 31 – Annalisa Perea

Annalisa Perea finished first in the primary with 44.1% of the vote, comfortably advancing to the November General Election. Republican Jim Polsgrove finished second with 37.7%.

Assembly District 42 – Kelly Honig

Kelly Honig advanced from the June Primary and remains well-positioned heading into the General Election.

Assembly District 65 – Ayanna Davis

Ayanna Davis advanced from the June Primary and will continue her campaign through November.

Assembly District 68 – David Penaloza

David Penaloza received 33.4% of the vote and advanced to the November General Election. Penaloza narrowly trails Republican Mayra Ruiz, who received 34.0%, setting up one of the most competitive Assembly races in the state.

Senate District 14 – Esmeralda Soria

Esmeralda Soria advanced to the November General Election and remains one of the business community's top legislative priorities this election cycle.

Senate District 34 – Avelino Valencia

Avelino Valencia delivered one of the strongest performances of the night, winning 60.9% of the vote and advancing comfortably to the November General Election. Valencia defeated Republican Rhonda Shader, who received 39.1%.

Local Ballot Measures

San Francisco CEO Tax (Propositions C & D)

San Francisco voters appear poised to reject both CEO Tax measures. As of this writing, both Proposition C and Proposition D are failing. CBPA PAC contributed to the San Francisco Chamber-led opposition effort.

El Cerrito Measure C

El Cerrito voters overwhelmingly rejected Measure C, a parcel tax intended to fund construction of a new city library. The measure received just 27.17% support, well short of the threshold required for passage.

Transfer Tax Measures

CBPA continues to monitor proposed transfer tax increases under consideration in Sacramento and Benicia and remains opposed to efforts that would further increase the cost of commercial real estate transactions and investment.